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Market Update - February 2026

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 18:34:49 GMT

I write these market updates as a way to step back from the headlines and look at what’s actually happening in the Bay Area housing market. They’re informed by current data and reporting, but also by the real conversations and decisions unfolding every day with clients and colleagues. My hope is that this perspective offers clarity and context, whether you’re actively navigating the market or simply keeping an eye on how things are evolving.

A Clearer Read on Where the Market Is, and How It’s Beginning to Move

As we move further into the new year, the Bay Area housing market is starting to show its hand. If you’ve worked with me before, are actively navigating the market right now, or are simply paying attention as you think about what might come next, my goal with these updates remains the same, to offer clarity, not noise.

Each month, I review the latest market data and reporting, including Reports on Housing, weigh it against real conversations with clients and trusted colleagues, and then share how those signals are showing up in practice. Not predictions, but perspective. What I’m seeing now is less about big swings and more about how buyers and sellers are actually behaving as the year begins.

The Longer Arc We’re Still In

The market is still adjusting to the aftermath of the 2020 to 2022 period, when historically low mortgage rates reshaped buyer and seller behavior. Today, roughly 78 percent of California homeowners still hold mortgage rates below 5 percent. When rates moved sharply higher in mid 2022, many would be sellers chose to wait rather than give up favorable financing. That pause has lasted longer than most expected and continues to shape inventory today. On the buyer side, higher borrowing costs and elevated prices have changed the tone of the market. Demand is present, but it’s careful. Buyers are prioritizing value, stability, and long term fit over speed or speculation.

Rates, the Economy, and Why Certainty Remains Elusive

Housing is now being driven less by sentiment and more by macroeconomic realities. The Federal Reserve continues to balance signs of a cooling labor market with persistent inflation concerns. As a result, mortgage rates have found some stability, but meaningful declines remain uncertain. Rates are not low enough to create excess, but they are steady enough to support engagement. That balance is shaping how both buyers and sellers are behaving early this year.

The Two Markets Showing Up Again

A small snapshot from this week illustrates what I’m seeing more broadly. I currently have two offers out for buyer clients. One is competing against five others. The other is the only offer submitted. Same market. Same week. Very different responses. This kind of split reflects the same two markets dynamic we saw last year. Homes that are well located, well presented, and priced with care are attracting strong interest. Homes that feel misaligned or are price more optimistically are getting less serious interest from buyers, often because buyers are simply opting out.

Buyers, Precision Over Pace

For buyers, the advantage right now goes to those who are clear and prepared. With my clients, the focus is on defining a narrow target rather than chasing every new listing. When priorities are clear, it becomes much easier to recognize real opportunities and move with confidence, while avoiding unnecessary second guessing. This approach also opens the door to off market opportunities, which tend to surface when the search criteria are well defined and communicated.

There will be openings in 2026. The buyers who benefit most will be those ready to act thoughtfully when the right situation presents itself.

Sellers Are Moving, But Expectations Matter

On the seller side, more homeowners are choosing to move forward despite rates remaining elevated. For many, the decision is less about timing the market and more about aligning housing with life changes that have been on hold. That’s contributing to rising inventory, even without a sharp drop in rates. At the same time, buyers are responding very clearly to how homes are priced and prepared. Listings that reflect current conditions are finding traction. Those that lean on past pricing expectations are struggling to gain momentum.

Sellers, Preparation Is the Differentiator

In today’s market, success is less about catching a wave and more about execution.

That means:

pricing with realism
making thoughtful, targeted improvements
being transparent and prepared around disclosures
choosing timing intentionally

When those elements are aligned, the selling process tends to feel far more controlled and far less stressful.

Looking Ahead from Here

The path through the first half of the year will continue to hinge on mortgage rates. If rates hold in the low 6 percent range, we’re likely to see steady activity build through spring, supported by returning buyers and consistent inventory. If rates move meaningfully lower, competition could intensify quickly in certain segments. If rates move higher, buyers will remain cautious, and negotiation leverage will increase. Either way, this is not a market driven by momentum alone, but by decisions made carefully and deliberately. I’ll continue to share both what the data is showing and what I’m seeing play out day to day, as those two perspectives together provide the most useful lens. If you’d like to talk through how these conditions relate to your own plans or timing, I’m always here as a resource.

Planning a move in 2026? Now is the best time to start preparing. Let’s build your strategy together—timing, pricing, and preparation make all the difference. �� 510-964-8818 | Schedule a meeting

Reports on Housing was created in 2004 to track what buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals are experiencing in real time, focusing on demand, inventory, market conditions, and pricing trends at both the county and city level.

The report is produced by Steven Thomas, a California real estate broker with decades of industry experience and a background in Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences from the University of California, San Diego. Reports on Housing is widely referenced by major media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, the Los Angeles Times, USA Today, and national television networks.

I include the report here as a data-driven complement to my own market commentary for those who want to explore the underlying numbers in more depth.

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Market Update - November 2025

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 20:46:57 GMT

Bay Area Market Holds Steady as Confidence Builds

On the real estate front, there’s plenty of nuance in the market right now. As technology accelerates and information can feel overwhelming, I’m deeply grateful to serve as a guide—helping clients interpret the data and navigate the process of buying or selling in one of the most dynamic and beautiful markets in the world. Strategy and clarity matter more than ever.
As 2025 winds down, the Bay Area housing market continues to show quiet strength. Inventory has eased slightly since October, holding near 10,500 homes for sale , which remains above last year’s levels but is trending lower as sellers pull back for the holidays. Meanwhile, demand has held firm, buoyed by mortgage rates hovering in the low 6% range , their lowest levels in over a year.

Nationally, pending home sales remain near their second-strongest pace of 2025, signaling renewed buyer confidence even amid mixed economic signals. Locally, showing traffic and refinance activity both reflect a steady sense of momentum.

Economic Backdrop: Signs of Renewal

At our recent Bay Area REAL Collective Mastermind , economist Dr. Lawrence Souza shared encouraging insights on what is unfolding beneath the surface of our regional economy.

AI is fueling a new Bay Area resurgence. While some established tech companies continue selective layoffs, a surge of AI startups and data-center investment is generating new hiring and office demand, particularly in San Francisco and Silicon Valley .
Migration back to core markets is underway as professionals return toward San Francisco, the Peninsula, and East Bay hubs such as Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill.
San Francisco’s quiet comeback: office occupancy, rents, and venture-capital inflows are climbing again, even as national headlines lag behind what is happening on the ground.
Rates and policy: The Federal Reserve may hold rates steady through year-end, with modest cuts possible in 2026 , although tariff policies could temper that progress.

Together, these dynamics suggest the Bay Area is entering the early phase of another tech-driven growth cycle, one likely to support long-term housing stability.

What We’re Seeing in the Housing Market

Inventory is stable. There are approximately 10,500 active listings Bay Area–wide (down 3 percent month over month and up 8 percent year over year). Alameda and Contra Costa remain balanced with 80–85 days on market, while Marin and Sonoma average 100–110 days.
Demand is steady. Pending sales are flat from October, with well-priced homes continuing to draw strong interest, particularly under $1.5 million in the East Bay.
San Francisco shows renewed energy. Days on market have tightened to around 68, with increased mid-tier activity.
Luxury market cooling modestly. Listings priced above $4 million are taking four to five months to sell on average.

Regional Market Pulse — November 2025

East Bay — Alameda and Contra Costa Counties

The East Bay market remains balanced and steady as we move toward year-end.
Inventory has eased slightly, but demand remains strong, especially for homes under $1.5 million , where well-priced listings continue to attract multiple offers. Average market time hovers around 80 days , yet that figure masks a clear divide. Strategically priced, well-presented homes often sell in one to two weeks, while overambitious listings linger far longer.

The region continues to benefit from migration back toward the core , with professionals returning to East Bay hubs such as Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill . This trend echoes economist Dr. Lawrence Souza’s observation of the Bay Area’s AI-driven resurgence.

Pulse: A tale of two markets. Precise pricing and presentation drive quick sales, while overpricing leads to extended time on market.

North Bay — Marin and Sonoma Counties

The North Bay has eased into a quieter seasonal rhythm, with average market times around 100–110 days .
Still, standout properties that are beautifully presented, well-located, and realistically priced often attract strong early activity and sell within the first two weeks. Buyers here remain patient and discerning, seeking homes that align with lifestyle and long-term value.

While broader AI and tech-sector growth is centered further south, spillover confidence and equity migration continue to support North Bay demand, particularly among move-up buyers and remote professionals seeking space and calm.

Pulse: Slower averages conceal quick wins for turnkey, well-positioned listings. Strategy and timing remain key.

San Francisco

San Francisco continues to show steady buyer energy, particularly in the $1 million to $2 million range, where days on market average around 68 . Move-in-ready homes that are priced correctly can still draw multiple offers within 10 to 14 days, signaling renewed local confidence.

Economically, the city is experiencing a quiet comeback. Venture capital activity, office absorption, and AI-related hiring are all trending upward, laying the groundwork for the next wave of market strength. Higher-end listings above $3 million are taking longer to move as buyers weigh options and price sensitivity remains high.

Pulse: The city’s mid-tier segment is moving briskly. Overall averages reflect slower luxury velocity and selective pricing.

A Tale of Two Markets

Well-prepared, strategically priced homes continue to attract multiple offers and premium prices, while optimistically priced listings are lingering. This creates opportunities for patient, prepared buyers who are ready to act decisively when the right property appears.

Mortgage Rates Continue to Support Buyers

Rates remain in the low 6 percent range, with some jumbo loans closer to 5.9 to 6.1 percent. Refinance activity has picked up, and buyers who were priced out earlier in the year are re-engaging as affordability improves.

Looking Ahead

With economic momentum returning to the Bay Area’s core markets, a disciplined, data-driven approach remains key. Strategy and clarity matter more than ever.
Whether buying or selling, having an experienced advisor to interpret the numbers and the nuances behind them can make all the difference.

Data Source: Market data compiled from ReportsOnHousing.com and local MLS statistics. See the full Bay Area report below for detailed trends, county snapshots, and year-over-year comparisons.

Planning a move in 2026? Now is the best time to start preparing. Let’s build your strategy together—timing, pricing, and preparation make all the difference.

�� 510-910-7124 | Schedule a meeting

Glossary of Home Buying Terms

smith@liftoffagent.com (Smith Chung) — Wed, 31 May 2023 20:14:43 GMT

Home Buying Terms To Prepare You For Your Home Purchase Journey

Appraisal

An appraisal is a professional assessment of a property's value conducted by a licensed appraiser. It helps determine the fair market value of the property and is often required by lenders before approving a mortgage.

Closing Costs

Closing costs are fees and expenses associated with finalizing a real estate transaction. These costs typically include fees for title searches, loan origination, attorney services, property surveys, and insurance. Buyers are responsible for paying these costs, which are usually a percentage of the purchase price.

Contingency

A contingency is a condition or requirement that must be met for the purchase agreement to be binding. Common contingencies include obtaining financing, satisfactory home inspection results, and the sale of the buyer's current home. If the contingency is not satisfied, the buyer may have the right to cancel the contract without penalty.

Down Payment

The down payment is the initial payment made by the buyer toward the purchase price of the property. It is typically expressed as a percentage of the total purchase price and is paid upfront at the closing. The remaining amount is financed through a mortgage.

Equity

Equity is the value of a homeowner's interest in a property, calculated by subtracting any outstanding mortgage debt from the property's current market value. It represents the portion of the property's value that the homeowner truly owns.

Home Inspection

A home inspection is an examination of a property's condition by a professional home inspector. It assesses the overall structural integrity, mechanical systems, and potential issues that may affect the property's value or safety. The inspection report helps the buyer make an informed decision about the purchase.

Mortgage

A mortgage is a loan provided by a lender to finance the purchase of a property. It is typically repaid over a specified term with interest. The property serves as collateral for the loan, and if the borrower fails to make payments, the lender may have the right to foreclose and take possession of the property.

Pre-approval

Mortgage pre-approval is a process in which a lender evaluates a borrower's financial situation and creditworthiness to determine the maximum loan amount they qualify for. Pre-approval provides a clear idea of the budget for house hunting and demonstrates to sellers that the buyer is a serious and qualified candidate.

Title

Title refers to legal ownership and rights to a property. A title search is conducted to ensure that there are no liens, claims, or other encumbrances on the property that could affect its transfer of ownership. Title insurance is typically obtained to protect against any future claims or defects in the title.

Underwriting

Underwriting is the process through which a lender assesses the risk associated with approving a mortgage loan. It involves reviewing the borrower's financial information, credit history, and property appraisal to determine if the loan meets the lender's criteria.

Amortization

Amortization refers to the gradual repayment of a mortgage loan over time through regular payments that include both principal and interest. With each payment, the portion allocated to principal increases, while the portion allocated to interest decreases.

Closing Disclosure (CD)

The Closing Disclosure is a document provided to the borrower by the lender at least three business days before the closing. It outlines the final terms of the loan, including the interest rate, monthly payment, closing costs, and any other fees associated with the mortgage.

Escrow Account

An escrow account is a separate bank account held by the lender, where a portion of the borrower's monthly mortgage payment is deposited to cover expenses such as property taxes, homeowners insurance, and mortgage insurance premiums.

Homeowners Association (HOA)

A homeowners association is an organization that manages and enforces rules and regulations for a community or neighborhood. If you purchase a property within an HOA, you may be required to pay regular fees and abide by certain restrictions and guidelines.

Loan Estimate (LE)

The Loan Estimate is a document provided by the lender to the borrower within three business days of applying for a mortgage. It provides an estimate of the loan terms, interest rate, monthly payment, closing costs, and other details associated with the loan.

Points

Points, also known as discount points, are fees paid to the lender at closing in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each point is typically equal to 1% of the loan amount. Paying points upfront can reduce the interest paid over the life of the loan.

Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)

Private Mortgage Insurance is insurance that protects the lender in case the borrower defaults on the mortgage. PMI is typically required for borrowers who make a down payment of less than 20% of the purchase price. The cost of PMI is added to the borrower's monthly mortgage payment.

Title Insurance

Title insurance protects the buyer and lender against any future legal claims or disputes regarding ownership of the property. It provides coverage for potential title defects that may have been missed during the title search and protects the buyer's investment in the property.

These are just a few essential terms you may come across during the home buying process. It's important to familiarize yourself with these terms and ask your real estate agent or mortgage lender for further clarification if needed.

What is an escrow?

smith@liftoffagent.com (Smith Chung) — Wed, 31 May 2023 20:01:40 GMT

Understanding The Escrow Process

As a first-time home buyer, understanding the concept of escrow is crucial. Escrow refers to a financial arrangement where a third party holds and manages funds, documents, and other assets during a real estate transaction. It acts as a neutral intermediary between the buyer and seller to ensure a smooth and secure transaction. Here's a breakdown of how escrow works:

Opening Escrow

Once your offer on a home is accepted by the seller, the process of opening escrow begins. You and the seller will select an escrow agent, typically a title company or an attorney, to handle the transaction.

Earnest Money Deposit

As part of the initial offer, you will be required to submit an earnest money deposit, which is a sum of money that demonstrates your serious intent to purchase the property. This deposit is held in escrow until the deal is finalized.

Title Search and Inspections

During the escrow period, various tasks are carried out, such as a title search to ensure the property's ownership is clear, and inspections to assess the condition of the home. These steps help identify any issues or liens that may affect the purchase.

Mortgage and Insurance

If you're obtaining a mortgage, your lender will require you to secure homeowners insurance. The escrow agent will verify these arrangements and ensure they align with the terms of the purchase agreement.

Contingencies and Negotiations

Escrow allows for contingencies, such as appraisal and financing contingencies, which give you the option to back out of the deal if certain conditions aren't met. The escrow agent helps facilitate negotiations and ensures the agreed-upon terms are met by both parties.

Closing Documentation

As the closing date approaches, the escrow agent prepares the necessary documentation, including the settlement statement, loan documents, and title transfer documents. These documents are reviewed, signed, and notarized by the buyer and seller.

Funds and Title Transfer

Once all the conditions are met, including the loan funding and the completion of required inspections, the buyer's funds, including the down payment and closing costs, are transferred to the escrow account. Simultaneously, the title of the property is transferred from the seller to the buyer.

Disbursement and Closing

The escrow agent disburses the funds to the appropriate parties, such as the seller, real estate agents, and any other relevant parties involved in the transaction. Once the disbursement is complete, the escrow is considered closed, and you officially become the owner of the property.

Escrow provides a secure and transparent process for handling the financial aspects of a real estate transaction, ensuring that funds, documents, and the transfer of ownership occur smoothly and fairly. The escrow agent plays a vital role in coordinating these activities, providing protection for both the buyer and seller throughout the home buying process.

Stages of Buying a Home

smith@liftoffagent.com (Smith Chung) — Wed, 31 May 2023 19:49:15 GMT

Topics to Consider when starting your home purchase journey

Stage 1: Introduction to Home Buying

Understanding the Benefits of Homeownership
Assessing Your Readiness to Buy a Home
Exploring Renting vs. Buying

Stage 2: Financial Preparation

Setting a Realistic Budget
Saving for a Down Payment
Understanding Mortgage Pre-Approval
Managing Your Credit Score

Stage 3: Exploring the Real Estate Market

Researching and Identifying Your Preferred Neighborhoods
Working with Real Estate Agents
Understanding Home Inspections
Evaluating Property Values

Stage 4: Mortgage and Financing

Types of Mortgages Available
Mortgage Interest Rates and Terms
Calculating Monthly Mortgage Payments
Applying for a Mortgage Loan

Stage 5: The Home Buying Process

Making an Offer on a Home
Negotiating the Purchase Price
Reviewing and Signing Contracts
Understanding Closing Costs

Stage 6: Homeownership Essentials

Homeowners Insurance
Maintaining and Repairing Your Home
Understanding Property Taxes
Homeownership Benefits and Responsibilities

Stage 7: Moving In and Settling Down

Planning and Organizing Your Move
Essential Utilities and Service Providers
Getting to Know Your New Community
Tips for a Smooth Transition

Stage 8: Additional Resources and Tools

First-Time Home Buyer Programs and Assistance
Mortgage Calculators and Tools
Glossary of Home Buying Terms
Frequently Asked Questions