I write these market updates as a way to step back from the headlines and look at what’s actually happening in the Bay Area housing market. They’re informed by current data and reporting, but also by the real conversations and decisions unfolding every day with clients and colleagues. My hope is that this perspective offers clarity and context, whether you’re actively navigating the market or simply keeping an eye on how things are evolving. A Clearer Read on Where the Market Is, and How It’s Beginning to Move As we move further into the new year, the Bay Area housing market is starting to show its hand. If you’ve worked with me before, are actively navigating the market right now, or are simply paying attention as you think about what might come next, my goal with these updates remains the same, to offer clarity, not noise. Each month, I review the latest market data and reporting, including Reports on Housing, weigh it against real conversations with clients and trusted colleagues, and then share how those signals are showing up in practice. Not predictions, but perspective. What I’m seeing now is less about big swings and more about how buyers and sellers are actually behaving as the year begins. The Longer Arc We’re Still In The market is still adjusting to the aftermath of the 2020 to 2022 period, when historically low mortgage rates reshaped buyer and seller behavior. Today, roughly 78 percent of California homeowners still hold mortgage rates below 5 percent. When rates moved sharply higher in mid 2022, many would be sellers chose to wait rather than give up favorable financing. That pause has lasted longer than most expected and continues to shape inventory today. On the buyer side, higher borrowing costs and elevated prices have changed the tone of the market. Demand is present, but it’s careful. Buyers are prioritizing value, stability, and long term fit over speed or speculation. Rates, the Economy, and Why Certainty Remains Elusive Housing is now being driven less by sentiment and more by macroeconomic realities. The Federal Reserve continues to balance signs of a cooling labor market with persistent inflation concerns. As a result, mortgage rates have found some stability, but meaningful declines remain uncertain. Rates are not low enough to create excess, but they are steady enough to support engagement. That balance is shaping how both buyers and sellers are behaving early this year. The Two Markets Showing Up Again A small snapshot from this week illustrates what I’m seeing more broadly. I currently have two offers out for buyer clients. One is competing against five others. The other is the only offer submitted. Same market. Same week. Very different responses. This kind of split reflects the same two markets dynamic we saw last year. Homes that are well located, well presented, and priced with care are attracting strong interest. Homes that feel misaligned or are price more optimistically are getting less serious interest from buyers, often because buyers are simply opting out. Buyers, Precision Over Pace For buyers, the advantage right now goes to those who are clear and prepared. With my clients, the focus is on defining a narrow target rather than chasing every new listing. When priorities are clear, it becomes much easier to recognize real opportunities and move with confidence, while avoiding unnecessary second guessing. This approach also opens the door to off market opportunities, which tend to surface when the search criteria are well defined and communicated. There will be openings in 2026. The buyers who benefit most will be those ready to act thoughtfully when the right situation presents itself. Sellers Are Moving, But Expectations Matter On the seller side, more homeowners are choosing to move forward despite rates remaining elevated. For many, the decision is less about timing the market and more about aligning housing with life changes that have been on hold. That’s contributing to rising inventory, even without a sharp drop in rates. At the same time, buyers are responding very clearly to how homes are priced and prepared. Listings that reflect current conditions are finding traction. Those that lean on past pricing expectations are struggling to gain momentum. Sellers, Preparation Is the Differentiator In today’s market, success is less about catching a wave and more about execution. That means: pricing with realism making thoughtful, targeted improvements being transparent and prepared around disclosures choosing timing intentionally When those elements are aligned, the selling process tends to feel far more controlled and far less stressful. Looking Ahead from Here The path through the first half of the year will continue to hinge on mortgage rates. If rates hold in the low 6 percent range, we’re likely to see steady activity build through spring, supported by returning buyers and consistent inventory. If rates move meaningfully lower, competition could intensify quickly in certain segments. If rates move higher, buyers will remain cautious, and negotiation leverage will increase. Either way, this is not a market driven by momentum alone, but by decisions made carefully and deliberately. I’ll continue to share both what the data is showing and what I’m seeing play out day to day, as those two perspectives together provide the most useful lens. If you’d like to talk through how these conditions relate to your own plans or timing, I’m always here as a resource.

Bay Area Market Holds Steady as Confidence Builds On the real estate front, there’s plenty of nuance in the market right now. As technology accelerates and information can feel overwhelming, I’m deeply grateful to serve as a guide—helping clients interpret the data and navigate the process of buying or selling in one of the most dynamic and beautiful markets in the world. Strategy and clarity matter more than ever. As 2025 winds down, the Bay Area housing market continues to show quiet strength. Inventory has eased slightly since October, holding near 10,500 homes for sale , which remains above last year’s levels but is trending lower as sellers pull back for the holidays. Meanwhile, demand has held firm, buoyed by mortgage rates hovering in the low 6% range , their lowest levels in over a year. Nationally, pending home sales remain near their second-strongest pace of 2025, signaling renewed buyer confidence even amid mixed economic signals. Locally, showing traffic and refinance activity both reflect a steady sense of momentum. Economic Backdrop: Signs of Renewal At our recent Bay Area REAL Collective Mastermind , economist Dr. Lawrence Souza shared encouraging insights on what is unfolding beneath the surface of our regional economy. AI is fueling a new Bay Area resurgence. While some established tech companies continue selective layoffs, a surge of AI startups and data-center investment is generating new hiring and office demand, particularly in San Francisco and Silicon Valley . Migration back to core markets is underway as professionals return toward San Francisco, the Peninsula, and East Bay hubs such as Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill. San Francisco’s quiet comeback: office occupancy, rents, and venture-capital inflows are climbing again, even as national headlines lag behind what is happening on the ground. Rates and policy: The Federal Reserve may hold rates steady through year-end, with modest cuts possible in 2026 , although tariff policies could temper that progress. Together, these dynamics suggest the Bay Area is entering the early phase of another tech-driven growth cycle, one likely to support long-term housing stability. What We’re Seeing in the Housing Market Inventory is stable. There are approximately 10,500 active listings Bay Area–wide (down 3 percent month over month and up 8 percent year over year). Alameda and Contra Costa remain balanced with 80–85 days on market, while Marin and Sonoma average 100–110 days. Demand is steady. Pending sales are flat from October, with well-priced homes continuing to draw strong interest, particularly under $1.5 million in the East Bay. San Francisco shows renewed energy. Days on market have tightened to around 68, with increased mid-tier activity. Luxury market cooling modestly. Listings priced above $4 million are taking four to five months to sell on average. Regional Market Pulse — November 2025 East Bay — Alameda and Contra Costa Counties The East Bay market remains balanced and steady as we move toward year-end. Inventory has eased slightly, but demand remains strong, especially for homes under $1.5 million , where well-priced listings continue to attract multiple offers. Average market time hovers around 80 days , yet that figure masks a clear divide. Strategically priced, well-presented homes often sell in one to two weeks, while overambitious listings linger far longer. The region continues to benefit from migration back toward the core , with professionals returning to East Bay hubs such as Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill . This trend echoes economist Dr. Lawrence Souza’s observation of the Bay Area’s AI-driven resurgence. Pulse: A tale of two markets. Precise pricing and presentation drive quick sales, while overpricing leads to extended time on market. North Bay — Marin and Sonoma Counties The North Bay has eased into a quieter seasonal rhythm, with average market times around 100–110 days . Still, standout properties that are beautifully presented, well-located, and realistically priced often attract strong early activity and sell within the first two weeks. Buyers here remain patient and discerning, seeking homes that align with lifestyle and long-term value. While broader AI and tech-sector growth is centered further south, spillover confidence and equity migration continue to support North Bay demand, particularly among move-up buyers and remote professionals seeking space and calm. Pulse: Slower averages conceal quick wins for turnkey, well-positioned listings. Strategy and timing remain key. San Francisco San Francisco continues to show steady buyer energy, particularly in the $1 million to $2 million range, where days on market average around 68 . Move-in-ready homes that are priced correctly can still draw multiple offers within 10 to 14 days, signaling renewed local confidence. Economically, the city is experiencing a quiet comeback. Venture capital activity, office absorption, and AI-related hiring are all trending upward, laying the groundwork for the next wave of market strength. Higher-end listings above $3 million are taking longer to move as buyers weigh options and price sensitivity remains high. Pulse: The city’s mid-tier segment is moving briskly. Overall averages reflect slower luxury velocity and selective pricing. A Tale of Two Markets Well-prepared, strategically priced homes continue to attract multiple offers and premium prices, while optimistically priced listings are lingering. This creates opportunities for patient, prepared buyers who are ready to act decisively when the right property appears. Mortgage Rates Continue to Support Buyers Rates remain in the low 6 percent range, with some jumbo loans closer to 5.9 to 6.1 percent. Refinance activity has picked up, and buyers who were priced out earlier in the year are re-engaging as affordability improves. Looking Ahead With economic momentum returning to the Bay Area’s core markets, a disciplined, data-driven approach remains key. Strategy and clarity matter more than ever. Whether buying or selling, having an experienced advisor to interpret the numbers and the nuances behind them can make all the difference.  Data Source: Market data compiled from ReportsOnHousing.com and local MLS statistics. See the full Bay Area report below for detailed trends, county snapshots, and year-over-year comparisons.

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